The jobs numbers

Boomers International Board: The Economy: The jobs numbers
Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message  By Anonymous on Friday, August 27, 2004 - 04:57 pm:

Page 15A

The jobs numbers that you're not hearing about
By Timothy Kane and Andrew Grossman

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently snuck out a telling confession beneath everyone's radar: Its flagship payroll survey is likely undercounting hundreds of thousands of jobs.

Most economic observers were too busy fretting over the lackluster gain of 32,000 payroll jobs in July to take notice of the other positive indicators, let alone the quiet little study that acknowledges payrolls have a problem.

The study describes how job-changing can inflate the payroll survey's numbers artificially. When worker turnover is brisk, as in the late 1990s, millions of workers are counted twice when they switch jobs. About 3.9 million people changed employers during a typical month during the 1990s, but only 3.1 million do so now.

Why is job-changing dropping? Maybe stability is preferred since 9/11. Perhaps lower turnover is a reflection of the aging workforce and low participation rate of current teens. Or maybe more workers are becoming self-employed. The reason doesn't matter, but the effect on payrolls does.

For months, the debate has been raging over how to measure jobs. Being that we're in a presidential election year, the issue has been magnified. But why should the average person care? Because only an accurate reading can gauge the country's true economic health and affect everything from interest rates to consumer confidence.

A survey we can't count on
The payroll survey has long been seen as the best measure because its larger sample dwarfs those of other methods. It surveys 160,000 businesses and government agencies. But now, BLS is admitting that the sample is muddy.

There's an alternative. The U.S. Labor Department's household survey, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate, is not subject to the job-changing effect. It surveys 60,000 households and counts self-employed consultants, real estate agents, farmers and other non-traditional workers who aren't on old-style payrolls.

Yet because the household survey shows 2 million more working Americans under President Bush than ever before, it has been attacked for partisan reasons. Those who favoring the payroll survey are quick to quote Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's congressional testimony in February favoring conventional numbers.

In March, we at the Heritage Foundation released a critique of the payroll survey, putting into numbers what many had long suspected: It doesn't accurately reflect today's economy.

Greenspan gets it
In his July 20 testimony to Congress, Greenspan cited measures from the payroll and household surveys. Then the Federal Reserve, led by Greenspan, voted unanimously to raise interest rates. It said the economy is “poised to resume a stronger pace of expansion” and noted that labor-market conditions continue to improve. It's no secret which survey would lead to that conclusion.

The Fed's actions helped everyone, including Wall Street, remember the good news. Claims for unemployment benefits, for example, are 10% below their 30-year average, while the unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest level since 2001. Best of all, the household survey showed a gain of more than half a million jobs in July alone.

Everything adds up — except the payroll survey.

In today's economy, workers can punch in from home, specialize, freelance and be their own bosses. Working moms can better balance a career with family by consulting 20 hours a week. Some people would contend that this is a crisis and that every person not on the job for 40-plus hours a week is suffering. That's an insult to the progress our country has made.

The definition of a job has changed, but the payroll survey hasn't. It is a huge mistake to focus on an illusory problem of economic weakness. Instead, policymakers should update business laws to reflect the new reality — the rapid pace of change in the workplace.

American workers need health care that's portable between jobs. They need pensions and 401(k) rules that are as flexible to move between employers as they are. What they don't need is more hot air about flawed statistics.


Timothy Kane is a research fellow in macroeconomics in the Center for Data Analysis at the Heritage Foundation (www.heritage.org), where Andrew Grossman is an editor.

http://www.usatoday.com/printedition/news/20040826/opcom26.art.htm


Top of pagePrevious messageNext messageBottom of pageLink to this message  By Anonymous on Friday, October 22, 2004 - 08:13 pm:

Posted 10/22/2004 5:35 PM Updated 10/22/2004 5:52 PM
Poll: Eight-point lead for Bush

Unemployment declines in eight of 10 political battleground states
WASHINGTON (AP) — Unemployment declined in September in eight of 10 states hotly contested in the presidential race — including Ohio, where job losses and a weak economy have boosted Democrat John Kerry's election hopes.
Friday's Labor Department report on regional and state employment in September was the last snapshot of the labor market before the election.

Jobless rates also declined last month in the other states up for grabs by Kerry and President Bush in their race to 270 electoral votes: Pennsylvania, Florida, Minnesota, New Mexico, New Hampshire, Nevada and Colorado. Rates climbed in Iowa and Wisconsin.

Overall, unemployment rates fell in 23 states, rose in 22 states and held steady in five. Jobs were added last month in 33 states, lost in 16 states and were unchanged in one.

Bush and Kerry are focused on nearly a dozen states where polls show the race especially tight. Polls suggest the race is close nationally as well, but most states are now decided.

In Ohio, which Bush narrowly won in 2000, the unemployment rate fell to 6% from 6.3% in August, mostly because jobseekers dropped out of the labor pool.

The national unemployment rate is 5.4%.

Ohio employers' payrolls grew by 5,500 last month, also helping to send down the jobless rate. But the state still lags far behind in jobs, losing 232,100 since Bush took office in January 2001. No Republican has won the White House without Ohio.

"Manufacturing is the heartbeat of the Midwest, and there's no question that manufacturing is still struggling," said Anthony Chan, senior economist with JP Morgan Fleming Asset Management in Columbus, Ohio.

Manufacturing employment in Ohio fell last month to its lowest level in decades, with just 823,700 workers on factory payrolls, down 174,300 since January 2001.

Across the country, manufacturing has gained about 70,000 jobs so far this year. But there are 2.7 million fewer manufacturing jobs in the United States since January 2001.

"We are definitely going to see a turn" in manufacturing, Chan said. "But from a political standpoint, it's not going to be fast enough to be evident before the election."

Bush, campaigning in Canton, Ohio, touted the tax bill he signed into law Friday. "I signed a bill that's going to help our manufacturers — that will save $77 billion over the next 10 years for the manufacturing sector of America," Bush said. "That will help keep jobs here."

Kerry, in Wisconsin, criticized Bush as the first president since the Great Depression to lose jobs on his watch. There are 821,000 fewer jobs in the United States than when Bush took office.

"When you add up the numbers, this state hasn't gained a single job in the last four years," Kerry said. "Not exactly what I'd call an economic recovery." Wisconsin has lost 36,000 jobs since January 2001. The unemployment rate rose to 5% last month.

Job losses in two battleground states, Michigan and Oregon, have helped Kerry win an edge there. Oregon had the third-highest unemployment rate last month, at 7.3%, behind the District of Columbia and Alaska. In Michigan, the rate ticked up to 6.8% last month with 14,800 jobs lost.

But other high-unemployment states are solidly behind Bush, including Alaska and South Carolina. Alaska's jobless rate held at 7.6% last month. In South Carolina, the rate climbed to 6.9% in September, up from 6.4%.

http://yahoo.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/nation/president/2004-10-22-unemployment-states_x.htm?csp=1


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